IEA Warns of 2 Years of Energy Pressure for Middle East Businesses

IEA chief Fatih Birol said Middle East energy output may take about two years to recover to pre-war levels. The IEA says reopening the Strait of Hormuz remains the most important step for restoring supply. IEA member countries released 400 million barrels from emergency reserves in March, the largest coordinated drawdown in the agency’s history. The business impact reaches far beyond oil producers and could hit logistics, aviation, manufacturing, import-heavy economies, and SMEs. Even with oil easing on April 17, Brent still closed near $97.55 a barrel, showing markets remain sensitive to any disruption in the region. Middle East energy risk is now a business story The latest warning from the International Energy Agency should matter to far more than commodity traders. Fatih Birol, the agency’s executive director, said on Friday that Middle East energy production could take around two years to return to pre-war levels, even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens. He also warned that markets may be underpricing the damage from a prolonged disruption. For business readers, that shifts the story immediately. This is no longer only about oil output. It is about how a long recovery could feed into transport costs, import bills, industrial fuel supply, and corporate planning across the region. Why the Strait of Hormuz still matters so much The Strait of Hormuz remains one of the world’s most important energy chokepoints. The U.S. Energy Information Administration has said the waterway handled about 21 million barrels per day in 2022, equal to roughly 21% of global petroleum liquids consumption. That makes any disruption there a direct threat to shipping flows, refinery supply, and fuel availability well beyond the Gulf. Birol said reserve releases can ease short-term bottlenecks, but they cannot replace the role of normal traffic through Hormuz. He added that production could improve significantly once the waterway reopens, yet full capacity would still take time because of wide