Goldman Sachs Sees 24.6% Recovery on Lebanon Eurobonds

Goldman Sachs has placed the base-case recovery value of Lebanese Eurobonds at 24.6 cents on the dollar, according to research reported by Credit Libanais on April 14, 2026. The figure is an important benchmark for holders of Lebanon's defaulted sovereign debt. Under the base case, Goldman expects restructuring to begin in the second half of 2026, conditional on a permanent ceasefire and other requirements being met. The bank's estimate reflects both haircut expectations and the time value of money until a restructuring deal is signed. What Recovery Value Means Recovery value is the share of the original bond's face value that holders are expected to receive once the restructuring is complete. At 24.6 cents on the dollar, bondholders would receive less than a quarter of the original amount owed. The estimate lines up with where Lebanese Eurobonds have reportedly been trading in secondary markets. It also reflects the country's long-running default, which began in March 2020 when Lebanon stopped paying interest on its dollar-denominated sovereign debt. The Conditions Attached Goldman's base case hinges on a permanent ceasefire and the fulfillment of other preconditions. These conditions have been a sticking point in discussions between Lebanese authorities, international lenders, and bondholders for years. Without political stability, a credible fiscal plan, and an agreement with the International Monetary Fund, restructuring talks cannot move forward. The second-half 2026 timeline therefore assumes real progress on multiple fronts in the coming months. A credible recovery value estimate helps anchor expectations across the Eurobond market and gives the Lebanese government a reference point heading into restructuring discussions. For local banks, which hold large volumes of Eurobonds on their balance sheets, the 24.6% figure also has direct implications for capital adequacy and future recapitalization plans. The question now is whether the political and economic cond